Doug's Darkworld

War, Science, and Philosophy in a Fractured World.

War Drums, Four Reasons Why War With Iran May Happen After All

with 5 comments

For some time now I have been arguing that the US and Israeli sabre rattling about attacking Iran was nothing to get alarmed about. I argued that the USA and Israel had ample geopolitical reasons for demonizing Iran, and excellent reasons to draw the line at demonizing and not actually engaging in outright war. And here we are once again, with the USA claiming that Iran is building a bomb, and Israel and the USA making veiled and not so veiled threats about attacking Iran. Same ol same ol, right? All threat, no hamster?

Sadly, things may have changed. While the reasons for not attacking Iran remain, there are now some new reasons for attacking Iran that may have pushed the case for war over the line. With no further ado, the four reasons why war with Iran has ramped up in likelihood:

1. The world economy. Or more accurately, the deficit spending (debt) crisis that is threatening both the European and the American economies. What better than a war to both justify continued military spending … and ramming through speeding cuts and austerity measures? Sorry, we need your pension/social security to keep Iran from getting the bomb … and anyone that disagrees is a traitor!

2. Palestinian statehood. The Palestinians have decided to pursue statehood without negotiations with Israel, and are actually making some progress. This has the Israeli government running scared, and they may calculate that a wider war, especially if they can get Hamas to join in, may give them the cover they need to expel the Palestinians from the occupied territories once and for all. At the very least, they may be able t use Iran as a pretense to once again quash the Palestinian’s hopes for a state.

3. Domestic US politics. Both OWS and the upcoming election give the Obama administration reason to support or join a war on Iran. To both outdo the hawks in the Republican presidential race, and create a reason to suppress the OWS movement by force.

4. The USA has demanded that Iran respond to the recent IAEA report about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This is maybe the scariest of all, since it’s akin to the USA’s demands on Iraq in the run up to the US attack on Iraq. Giving a chosen enemy an ultimatum they can’t meet is a classic USA justification for war. There’s no way Iran can prove a negative, so no matter what Iran says, the USA can just dismiss their claims as lies and make further demands.

Am I being alarmist? I don’t know. Unfortunately the world has become a lot less predictable lately as both political and economic storms ravage the planet. Wars are more likely in unstable times, and I think it’s safe to say that current times qualify as unstable. And if such a war happens, what will be the results? It will be as predictable as the end results of World War One and Two were, in other words, no one has a clue. This is why wars are insane, they almost always have horrible unintended consequences. Still, for politicians, war profiteers, and the like, wars can be enormously profitable on all sorts of levels. That’s why we have so many of them. Heck, the USA is now at constant war, it’s a war profiteers wet dream.

One last note, Iran’s so called “nuclear weapons program.” I didn’t mention it in my calculations, because it is no more a reality than Saddam’s WMDs, IE scary stories to fool the credulous with. The evidence that Iran is producing nuclear weapons doesn’t pass the laugh test, and even if they did, their arsenal would be peanuts compared to Israel and the USA’s vast array of nuclear weapons and attendant delivery systems. The only “real” aspect to it is that if Iran had nuclear arms, it would be able to defend itself against an attack. Um, so what?

Sleep tight everyone.

(The above image is public domain under US copyright law so much as I could ascertain. It’s a freighter being attacked in the Persian Gulf during the Tanker War that took place in the Iran-Iraq War.)


Written by unitedcats

November 13, 2011 at 1:35 pm

5 Responses

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  1. War is coming, I am afraid. The Democrats haven’t a prayer of being reelected w/o one.

    • Whatever his faults may be, Obama is the most cunning politician to come down the pike in a generation. He got into the White House against all odds in 2008, and he has vastly more political capital now. A war would no more get him re-elected than it did Bush I, and Obama’s got far better arrows in his quiver. While Obama certainly doesn’t do anything without considering the domestic political impact, I don’t think he would go to war solely for the reason of trying to get re-elected. And I don’t think he’s the slightest bit concerned that people think he can’t get re-elected, if anything he may be trying to foster that impression. —Doug


      November 13, 2011 at 2:23 pm

      • Obama has as much chance of getting re elected, as a fart has of staying together in the wind.
        Regardless of who is at fault for our bad economy, the Republicans have succeeded in putting the blame on the Democrats.
        War with Iran could trigger WW 3 easily.
        Has not Russia warned the US not to attack Iran ?
        Why does the US so blindly support Israel ?

  2. There really is only one party.. and they are both in on the game. War is most likely as the US does not even control its own foreign policy. In the end our military is a tool of the corporate elite, and you Mr. Taxpayer are but a serf.

    Barry O, is just a tool and is absolutely a sock puppet.. in the end would be replaced by whomever (Hillary?)

    In the end its just all a false choice. The choice of one of two, leaves one to wonder who reduced it to two? That is a choice Americans do not get to make. So much for the illusion of ‘voting’.

    And for the record, I for one am not convinced that the Republicans have succeeded in placing blame on Democrats. The Republicans are profligate spenders as well. If we are going to survive as a nation we must get past this Republican/Democrat, us/them, Right/Wrong, 0/1, Win/Loose paradigm.
    For too long the elite have easily ‘split the herd’ of dumb citizens who cannot see past this simple manipulation.

    John Galt

    November 15, 2011 at 7:00 pm

  3. Oh, and for the record “The USA has demanded that Iran respond to the recent IAEA report about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “…

    OK, so while we are at it, lets demand to see the IAEA report about the Jewish states nuclear ‘ambitions’ ??

    Oh, so the pot does not want to call the kettle black so it does so by proxy by having the US carry its water. Israel has never been IAEA inspected nor has it signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

    Wake up people.

    John Galt

    November 15, 2011 at 7:09 pm

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