Doug's Darkworld

The Russo-Ukrainian War continues. I’m still trying to figure it out. To say that the current global situation is complicated and unstable would be an understatement. It doesn’t look like this war is going to end anytime soon. The last time there was open war between developed nations was the Falklands in 1982 or the Yom Kippur War in 1973. I guess you could call the Gulf Wars such, but they were both essentially walkovers. And on paper Russia vs Ukraine should be a walkover, the fact that it isn’t pretty much is a slam dunk that Russia’s war aims are limited, this isn’t Hitler rolling into Poland. When Hitler invaded Poland he committed essentially all of his military might. 

So what is Putin up to? According to the western press he’s a guy surrounded by lying incompetents, evil to boot, who has made a terrible mistake and is failing terribly in his war endeavors. IE the complete opposite of the brilliant strategist who has defended Russia and its friends for decades, outmaneuvering both Obama and Bush when confronted. Maybe, people change, but I’m guessing Putin is as clever as ever, and however desperate this war is, he has plans and alternate plans. Assuming your enemy is an idiot or incompetant has been the basis of countless military disasters in history, and if the Biden administration really thinks Putin is a fool, America is really fucked. 

When stuff like this is happening, ripple effects will spread out around the world. Especially since Putin almost certainly wouldn’t have invaded without China’s tacit support, and it’s more than likely carefully coordinated with them. In fact one of the very first thoughts I had about this, would China try to retake Taiwan while this is going on? I think whatever is going on is more subtle than that though, if I had to guess I think a subtle counter punch to America global hegemony might be part of their plan. Things like this Cambodia Signs Military Deal With China After US Pressure and this: Security agreement with China ‘initialled’ by both countries, Solomon Islands says | Asia Pacific | The Guardian. In fact the latter brushed off US objections by saying they intend to be friends to all, enemies to none. This may well have been a slap to America’s face, since that was what the founding fathers intended  … and Washington is the complete opposite of today. 

Even regionally, this is fascinating: South Ossetia Planning to Hold Referendum To Join Russia. South Ossetia is the homeland of people who have been loyal Russian allies for centuries. It was never a problem until the collapse of the Soviet Union and the borders drawn up by NATO made South Ossetia part of Georgia, which the Ossetians manifestly did not want to a part of. They fought two wars to remain independent from Georgia, the second one where Georgia attacked Russian peacekeeping troops … and got pounded by Russia in response. I suspect the vote will be overwhelming, if nothing else Russia does stand by its friends. The USA is already screaming that the “territorial integrity” of Georgia is sacred or some such, which is code for ‘only the USA gets to draw the world’s borders.’

Those days may be coming to an end.  The world is changing, the US is no longer the undisputed ruler of the world. It never really was except in many Americans fevered imagination. Most Americans don’t grasp that, and the Biden administration doesn’t appear to get it either: The Bush-Biden Doctrine – The American Conservative. Or this, perhaps Biden’s grasp of the situation Washington created really isn’t as nuanced as it needs to be: Insult Diplomacy: Does Biden’s Vilification of Putin Help? Day 37 and the war continues, who knows what tomorrow will bring. Whatever it does, I’ll blog on it.

Well, this morning brought this link: Rand Paul: Promoting negotiations over war doesn’t make you a Putin sympathizer – Responsible Statecraft. I’m normally underwhelmed by anything Rand Paul says, but here he’s the voice of reason. It’s appalling to me that so many people on the Democrats’ side are falling for “Putin is evil and more war is the solution.”  And yes, all my recent blog posts have been about the war in Ukraine. That’s because aside from Global Warming it’s the top story of the day. And the longer it goes on, the worse it will get.

Hope all are having a good weekend.

Copyright © 2022 Doug Stych. All rights reserved.

(Image: Found on Facebook, attribution in image, used without permission, claimed as Fair Use under US copyright law.)