Doug's Darkworld

War, Science, and Philosophy in a Fractured World.

ARE WE AT WAR WITH IRAN YET?

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British_supply_convoy_in_Iran,_headed_by_Soviet_BA-10_armored_vehicle

OK, taking a break from my vacation to write two posts. First, about the Iran/Trump kerfuffle, because it is a scary situation that might blow up into an actual shooting war. Second, more on Russiagate, due to popular demand. (I never should have started that Facebook group.) Plus I like writing, I had fun with the new cat species post.

So, Iran. the US has been playing brinkmanship with Iran ever since they overthrew the US sponsored dictatorship that ruled Iran with an iron fist for decades. The nerve, if a nation’s government is good enough for the US, why, it’s good enough for the nation’s citizens! Yes, I’m being facetious. In any event, I will discuss several features of the current situation, primarily the drone shoot down, and Trump’s supposedly cancelled attack. I don’t know how long this article will remain current as the situation is rapidly evolving. Another reason for a quick break from my vacation. In any event the biggest codicil to keep in mind is no one in either administration can be trusted to tell the truth at times like this, so us worms can speculate endlessly and still not know what’s going on. Still, it’s fun to speculate. It’s what worms do.

So, Iran shot down a US drone. That’s about all we know for sure. Was it an unexpected shoot down? I’ve heard this type of drone was designed not to be shot down by the type of missile that hit it. Does this means the Iranians are more capable than expected? Or did the US point the drone at Iran, turn off its electronic countermeasures, and wait for them to shoot it down? Who knows. It wasn’t just any drone either, it was a $100 million plus spy drone, which would argue the drone shoot down was not part of US plans. The only thing that can be safely said is that this isn’t something to get excited about, let alone go to war over. Alas, I have seen a number of “Bomb the Mullahs!” posts and comments on Trump supporter web sites.

Then Trump’s claim that he authorised an attack and then called it off at the last moment. I can’t think of anything good about this one. If true, it’s sort of good news, but it’s also crazy. What if some military assets didn’t get the stand down order? Or maybe the Trump administration was just trying to scare Iran? Maybe, but it’s not like Iran is unaware of imminent US threats, and it’s not like the US has exercised restraint when it comes to bombing people.

Which leads to, why is Trump doing this? The idea that Iran is being aggressive or is behind the tanker incidents literally doesn’t pass the laugh test. Trump claims there will be new sanctions “to prevent Iran from getting the bomb.” Newsflash, Iran gave up their nuclear bomb program long ago, and their peaceful nuclear program is heavily monitored by the international community. That’s what the freaking treaty with Iran did, the treaty that Trump pulled out of!  So dunno, maybe Trump’s usual mindless hostility towards any Muslims not in America’s pocket. It’s the Saudis waging war on their neighbours and destabilizing the region, not Iran. Maybe Trump just wants to drive the price of oil up.

Or possibly this is all cover and distraction for “The deal of the century” in Palestine. That would be where Israel effectively annexes the West Bank, bypassing the Palestinian Authority, by signing a “treaty” with some Palestinian businessmen. In other words, Israel will buy off a few prominent Palestnians to legitimize the final elimination of any possibility for independence and justice for the Palestinian people. Occupation forever. Shades of American treaties with the American Indians. A big enough crisis in the Middle East could give Israel all the cover it needs.

The scary thing about all this is that no one knows how a war with Iran would play out. In the infamous Millenium Challenge 2002 wargame run by the Pentagon, Iran launched a preemptive attack, sinking over a dozen US warships with at least 20,000 dead. At that point the Pentagon halted the wargame, and then rewrote the rules so the US was guaranteed to win the rematch. Not the first time in history that a military leader has cancelled results he didn’t like in a wargame. In the wargame just linked, the Japanese proceeded with their plan despite the wargame outcome, and went on to suffer a crushing war-changing defeat at the Battle of Midway. Could Iran win a war with the USA? Not bloody likely. Could a US attack on Iran go catastrophically bad and lead to major losses to the US? Sure. I certainly don’t want to see the Russian theory that 70 cruise missiles fired at a US carrier would sink it put to the test.

So, the situation continues to unfold. The US is now claiming they launched a cyber attack on Iranian weapons systems. Which would be an act of war of course, but the US has no qualms about waging war and claiming it was justified somehow. In this case it’s especially ludicrous since none of the accusations of Iranian “aggression” are particularly well founded. Our aggression, we brag about it but call it anything but aggression. In any event who the hell knows what is really going on, “The first casualty of war is truth.” Trump is playing with fire though, I can only hope it ends with a whimper, not a bang.

Mostly just another manufactured crisis to distract us while our pockets are picked. It saddens me how over the past few years we’ve been trained to think of the world as being primarily made of threats. It’s not a healthy outlook, but it sure sells weapons. One last link that seems to have a decent overview of the situation. And, you know, should nuclear war breaks out, this is what to do.

Copyright © 2019 Doug Stych. All rights reserved.

(Image: British supply convoy with Soviet escorts in Iran, part of the 1941 Anglo-Russian occupation of Iran. September 1941 The west has been invading and meddling in Iran for a century, this is just one of the more egregious instances. Credit: Unknown. Public Domain under US copyright law.)

Written by unitedcats

June 25, 2019 at 12:56 pm

Posted in current events, Iran, Trump, War

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